Capacity Credits & Availability Fees
Concept
Capacity Credits = Vooraf betaalde productiecapaciteit ("surge insurance") Availability Fees = Paraatheidsvergoeding voor tooling, supply chain, personeel
Analogie: Reserved instances in cloud computing — betaal voor beschikbaarheid, niet alleen voor gebruik.
Waarom Nodig?
Problem: Traditional Procurement
Scenario: Overheid koopt 100 drones. Probleem bij escalatie: Supplier kan niet snel opschalen want:
- Tooling is uitgebreid (niet idle beschikbaar)
- Supply chain is geoptimaliseerd voor peacetime volumes
- Personeel is ingezet bij andere klanten
- Result: 12+ maanden om productie 10x te maken
Solution: Capacity Credits
Scenario: Overheid koopt capacity credits voor 1000 drones. Benefit: Supplier houdt gereed:
- Tooling (CNC, 3D printers, assembly lines)
- Supply chain agreements (Tier-1/Tier-2 commitments)
- Personeel capacity (hiring/training pipeline)
- Result: Time-to-surge: ≤ 6 weken
Capacity Credits — Detailed Mechanics
Credit Purchase (Step 1)
Buyer (Overheid) koopt credits representing potential productie.
Example:
Credit purchase: 1000 tactical drones
Unit cost (full production): €50K/drone
Credit cost: 15% × €50K = €7.5K/credit
Total credit investment: €7.5M
What buyer gets:
- Surge optie — right to activate productie within 6 weken
- Guaranteed pricing — €50K/drone locked in
- Priority access — boven niet-credit klanten
Credit Activation (Step 2)
Trigger: Escalation scenario (bv. Baltic crisis)
Process:
- T+0: Overheid activeert 1000 credits
- T+1 week: Supplier starts tooling, orders components
- T+6 weken: First batch delivery (200 drones)
- T+12 weken: Full 1000 drones delivered
Payment upon activation:
Credit already paid: €7.5M (15%)
Remaining payment: €42.5M (85%)
Total: €50M for 1000 drones
Credit Expiry & Rollover (Step 3)
Expiry: Credits expire na X jaar (bv. 3 jaar) als niet geactiveerd.
Options:
- Rollover: Renew credits (betaal 15% opnieuw)
- Partial activation: Use credits voor kleinere orders
- Transfer: Sell credits aan andere JEF landen (secondary market)
Availability Fees — Detailed Mechanics
Availability Fee = Jaarlijkse betaling voor paraatheid van systemen/tooling.
What is Covered?
Tooling Maintenance:
- CNC machines idle maar onderhouden
- 3D printers kalibratie
- Test equipment
Supply Chain Agreements:
- Tier-1 supplier commitments
- Pre-negotiated pricing
- Priority allocation clauses
Personnel Readiness:
- Hiring pipeline
- Training programs
- On-call expertise
Facility Overhead:
- Cleanroom maintenance
- Security (export controls)
- Utilities
Pricing Formula
Availability Fee = (Total System Value × Availability Target × Fee Factor)
Where:
Total System Value = Full replacement cost
Availability Target = Required uptime % (e.g., 95%)
Fee Factor = 10-20% (depending on complexity)
Example: ISR System
Total System Value: €10M (sensors, platforms, ground stations)
Availability Target: 95%
Fee Factor: 15%
Availability Fee = €10M × 0.95 × 0.15 = €1.425M/jaar
Combined Model: Credits + Availability
Most contracts combine both:
| Component | Purpose | Payment |
|---|---|---|
| Capacity Credits | Surge insurance | 15% upfront, 85% upon activation |
| Availability Fee | Paraatheid operational systems | 10-20% jaarlijks |
| Usage Fee | Actual missions/effects | Per mission/hour |
Example: Baltic ISR + Surge
| Item | Cost |
|---|---|
| Capacity Credits (1000 drones) | €7.5M (15% van €50M) |
| Availability Fee (current 100 drones) | €1.425M/jaar |
| Usage Fee (ISR missions) | €50K/dag × 365 = €18.25M/jaar |
| Total Annual | €27.175M |
Upon surge activation:
- Spend €7.5M credits
- Pay remaining €42.5M for 1000 drones
- New availability fee: €14.25M/jaar (10x meer drones)
Multi-year Contract Structure
Year 1-3: Build-up Phase
Focus: Establish baseline capacity + credit reserves
| Year | Capacity Credits | Availability Fee | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | €7.5M (1000 drones) | €1.4M (100 drones) | €18.25M |
| 2 | €7.5M (rollover) | €1.4M | €18.25M |
| 3 | €7.5M (rollover) | €1.4M | €18.25M |
Year 4+: Steady State
Scenario 1 (Peacetime):
- Credits roll over, no activation
- Availability fees continue
- Usage fees for ongoing missions
Scenario 2 (Escalation):
- Credits activated → 1000 drones produced
- Availability fees increase (10x capacity)
- Usage fees increase (more missions)
Incentive Alignment
For Supplier
Benefits van capacity credits + availability fees:
- ✅ Predictable revenue (availability fees)
- ✅ Locked-in surge orders (credits)
- ✅ Cash flow voor CAPEX (tooling investeringen)
- ✅ Risk mitigation (paid to be ready)
Obligations:
- ⚠️ Maintain tooling readiness
- ⚠️ Supply chain commitments
- ⚠️ Surge drill participation
- ⚠️ Transparency (audits)
For Buyer (Overheid)
Benefits:
- ✅ Guaranteed surge (within 6 weken)
- ✅ Locked-in pricing (no price gouging)
- ✅ Flexibility (activate only when needed)
- ✅ Transparency (dashboards, audits)
Costs:
- ⚠️ Upfront credit investment (15%)
- ⚠️ Annual availability fees (10-20%)
- ⚠️ Potential credit expiry (if not activated)
Secondary Market for Credits
Concept: Credits kunnen worden verhandeld tussen JEF landen.
Example:
Nederland koopt €50M credits (1000 drones)
Na 2 jaar: geen activatie, credits expire soon
Finland heeft urgent behoefte (Baltic escalation)
Transfer:
- Nederland verkoopt 500 credits aan Finland voor €4M (discount)
- Finland activeert credits bij Nederlandse supplier
- Nederland houdt 500 credits + €4M liquidity
Benefits:
- Prevents credit expiry waste
- Improves JEF flexibility
- Creates liquidity
Governance:
- Export controls (ITAR, EU dual-use)
- Transfer approval (beide landen + EU)
- Pricing transparency
Risk Management
For Supplier
Risks:
| Risk | Mitigation |
|---|---|
| Credits never activated | Availability fees cover overhead |
| Tech obsolescence | Iteratie clauses (upgrade during contract) |
| Supply chain disruption | Tier-2 visibility, alternative suppliers |
| Regulatory change | Force majeure clauses |
For Buyer
Risks:
| Risk | Mitigation |
|---|---|
| Supplier bankruptcy | Escrow accounts, parent company guarantees |
| Surge drill failure | Quarterly tests, remediation plans |
| Overinvestment in credits | Secondary market, rollover options |
| Tech obsolescence | Upgrade paths, modular designs |
Kapitaalmarkt (Zuidas) Integration
Why investors like this model:
-
Recurring Revenue:
- Availability fees = predictable annual income
- Multi-year contracts (3-5 jaar visibility)
-
Balance Sheet Optimization:
- Capacity credits = asset (future revenue)
- Availability fees = operating income
-
Growth Optionality:
- Credit activation = surge in revenue/production
- Dual-use = civiele + militaire markets
Investor pitch:
Base case (peacetime):
- €1.4M/jaar availability fees
- €18.25M/jaar usage fees
- Total: €19.65M/jaar
Surge case (wartime):
- Activate €50M credits
- New availability fees: €14.25M/jaar
- Increased usage: €50M+/jaar
- Total: €64.25M+/jaar