Kapitaalmarkt (Zuidas) — DeepTech Defence Capacities
Waarom Kapitaalmarkt?
Traditional defense procurement financing:
- Overheidsbudgetten (beperkt, langzame cycli)
- Export credit agencies (ITAR restricties, vendor lock-in)
- Private equity (exit onzekerheid, korte termijn focus)
Problem: DeepTech Defence bedrijven met strategic autonomy capabilities en surge capacity hebben meer kapitaal nodig dan traditionele procurement kan bieden.
Solution: Amsterdam Zuidas als kapitaalmarkt hub voor DeepTech Defence — focus op unicorns en hoofdkantoren naar Nederland halen.
Zuidas Positioning — DeepTech Defence Hub
Waarom Amsterdam/Zuidas voor Defense Unicorns?
| Factor | Amsterdam Advantage |
|---|---|
| Tech Ecosystem | ASML, NXP, Philips — bewezen deeptech scale-ups |
| Capital Markets | Euronext — liquid, tech-friendly, geen ITAR dominance |
| Regulatory | EU framework, geen US vendor lock-in |
| Talent | TU Delft, Eindhoven — engineering excellence |
| Geography | Central in JEF, 2u vliegen naar UK/DK/SE/FI |
| Unicorn Track Record | ASML (€300B+), Adyen, Booking — proven scale path |
| Tax Competitiveness | Innovation Box, 30% ruling voor expats |
| Quality of Life | Amsterdam ranking, international schools, English-friendly |
Competitors:
- London — Post-Brexit regulatory drift, ITAR influence, higher costs
- Stockholm — Smaller market, dominated by Saab
- Paris — Protectionisme, bureaucracy, language barrier
- Berlin — Fragmented defense policy, regulatory complexity
Zuidas differentiator: Open capital markets + proven unicorn scaling + strategic autonomy alignment + JEF central location.
DeepTech Defence Capacities — Investment Focus
What is DeepTech Defence?
DeepTech Defence = bedrijven die strategic autonomy en surge capacity leveren via advanced tech.
NOT: Traditional defense primes (Thales, BAE, Leonardo) YES: Scale-ups met breakthrough tech in:
-
Strategic Autonomy Capabilities
- Sensors (EO/IR/Radar) zonder vendor lock-in
- Comms (RF mesh, LEO satcom) open architectures
- AI-edge (autonomous systems) EU-sovereign
- Advanced materials (composites, batteries) supply chain resilient
-
Surge Capacity Tech
- Additive manufacturing (rapid scaling)
- Modular platforms (10x productie in 6 weken)
- Supply chain orchestration (digital twins, Tier-2 visibility)
- Pre-positioned tooling (ready-to-activate capacity)
Examples (hypothetical/existing):
- Sensor tech — EuroSense (EO/IR modules, €500M valuation target)
- Autonomous systems — Nordic Robotics (AI-edge, €1B+ potential)
- Advanced materials — BatteryNL (solid-state, €300M valuation)
- Manufacturing tech — RapidScale (additive, €200M valuation)
Unicorns naar Amsterdam — Strategic Rationale
Why Defense Unicorns Choose Amsterdam
1. Access to European Capital
Euronext is the gateway voor defense tech in Europa:
- €6T+ market cap (total exchange)
- Tech-friendly (ASML, ASMI, Prosus track record)
- No ITAR dominance (vs. NYSE/NASDAQ waar US defense investors domineren)
- EU regulatory alignment (geen Brexit, geen French protectionisme)
2. Hoofdkantoor Incentives
Nederland biedt unieke voordelen voor defense unicorn HQ's:
| Incentive | Benefit |
|---|---|
| Innovation Box | 9% effective tax rate op IP-derived profits |
| 30% Ruling | 30% salaris tax-free voor expats (5 jaar) |
| R&D Tax Credit (WBSO) | 40% korting op R&D loonkosten |
| Patent Box | Lagere belasting op patentinkomsten |
| Participation Exemption | 0% tax op dividends van dochterondernemingen |
3. JEF Central Location
Amsterdam is geografisch optimaal voor JEF operations:
- 2 uur naar London, Copenhagen, Stockholm
- 1 uur naar Brussel (EU/NATO)
- Schiphol — best connected hub in Europa
- Direct flights naar alle JEF hoofdsteden
4. Talent Pool
Nederland heeft Europe's best engineering talent:
- TU Delft — #1 in Europa voor aerospace, robotics
- TU Eindhoven — photonics, semiconductors, AI
- University of Twente — sensors, materials
- English-speaking — 95%+ engineers speak English
Hoofdkantoren naar Nederland — Case Studies
Case Study 1: Hypothetical Sensor Unicorn
EuroSense Technologies (hypothetical)
Situation:
- Founded in Sweden (strong tech, small market)
- €200M revenue, €1B valuation target
- Needs capital for surge capacity scaling
Why relocate HQ to Amsterdam?
| Factor | Stockholm | Amsterdam | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Access | Nordics (30M) | EU (450M) | ✅ Amsterdam |
| Capital | Limited IPO market | Euronext, deep pools | ✅ Amsterdam |
| Tax (Innovation Box) | 20.6% | 9% on IP profits | ✅ Amsterdam |
| Talent | 10M population | 17M + EU mobility | ✅ Amsterdam |
| JEF Access | Limited | Central, 2h flights | ✅ Amsterdam |
Result:
- Relocate HQ to Amsterdam (Zuidas)
- Keep R&D in Stockholm (talent retention)
- IPO on Euronext (€1.5B valuation)
- Use proceeds for surge capacity tooling
Case Study 2: Hypothetical AI-Edge Unicorn
Nordic Robotics (hypothetical)
Situation:
- Finnish startup, €150M revenue
- Autonomous systems for defense + commercial
- Needs €500M for global scaling
Amsterdam Advantage:
-
Capital Access:
- Euronext IPO (€2B valuation potential)
- Amsterdam-based VCs (Prosus, Booking founders)
- Strategic investors (ASML, NXP partnerships)
-
HQ Benefits:
- Innovation Box: Save €20M/jaar on IP profits
- 30% ruling: Attract global AI talent
- Amsterdam quality of life: Retain employees
-
Ecosystem:
- Partner with TU Delft (AI research)
- ASML supplier network (precision manufacturing)
- Schiphol logistics (rapid deployment)
Result:
- HQ Amsterdam, R&D stays in Finland + expand in NL
- IPO 2026, €2.5B valuation
- Becomes #1 EU autonomous defense platform
Zuidas Investment Vehicles
1. DeepTech Defence Fund (€500M)
Structure:
- Government anchor: €100M (EZ, Defensie)
- Private capital: €400M (pension funds, family offices)
- Focus: Pre-IPO defense unicorns (Series B/C)
Investment Criteria:
- ✅ Strategic autonomy tech (no vendor lock-in)
- ✅ Surge capacity capabilities (10x scaling)
- ✅ Willing to relocate HQ to NL
- ✅ €50M+ revenue, path to IPO
Target Companies:
- Sensors, AI-edge, advanced materials
- Manufacturing tech, supply chain orchestration
- Comms, cyber, autonomous systems
2. Euronext DeepTech Defence Index
Concept: Dedicated index voor defense unicorns op Euronext.
Benefits:
- Visibility voor institutional investors
- Liquidity (ETFs kunnen indexeren)
- ESG certification (strategic autonomy = economic security)
Requirements:
- Listed on Euronext Amsterdam
- HQ in Nederland of JEF land
- Strategic autonomy tech focus
- Min. €500M market cap
Example constituents (if existed):
- ASML (already listed, €300B)
- NXP (semiconductors, €60B)
- Hypothetical: EuroSense, Nordic Robotics, BatteryNL
3. Innovation Box for Defense IP
Current: 9% effective tax rate on IP-derived profits.
Proposal: 5% rate voor strategic autonomy IP.
Qualifying IP:
- Sensors without vendor lock-in
- Open-architecture comms
- AI-edge (EU-sovereign)
- Supply chain resilience tech
Impact:
- Attracts defense unicorn HQ's
- Incentivizes R&D in NL
- Generates tax revenue (even at 5%, better than 0%)
Government Role — Enablers
1. Anchor Investments
Capacity Credits as Investment Vehicle:
Government koopt capacity credits (€50M-€500M) van unicorns:
- Provides revenue visibility (bankable contracts)
- Enables venture debt (krediet tegen capacity credits)
- De-risks IPO (investors see government backing)
Example:
Nordic Robotics (autonomous drones):
├─ Government capacity credits: €200M (4000 drones)
├─ Revenue visibility: 3-year horizon
├─ Venture debt: €100M (backed by credits)
└─ IPO proceeds: €500M (scaling + surge capacity)
2. Fast-track HQ Relocation
Incentive package voor defense unicorn HQ's:
- 30% ruling: Immediate approval (no waiting)
- Innovation Box: Pre-approval voor qualifying IP
- Visa fast-track: Key employees (engineers, execs)
- Real estate: Zuidas office space (subsidized first 2 years)
Target: 5 defense unicorns HQ's naar Amsterdam by 2027.
3. Euronext Partnership
Co-marketing defense unicorn IPO's:
- Roadshows in UK, SE, FI (attract companies)
- "Ring the bell" events (visibility)
- ESG certification (strategic autonomy = sustainability)
Unicorn Attraction Strategy
Phase 1: Target Identification (2025)
Identify 20 defense scale-ups in JEF landen:
| Country | Target Companies | Valuation Range |
|---|---|---|
| UK | 5 companies | €200M - €2B |
| SE | 5 companies | €100M - €1B |
| FI | 3 companies | €100M - €500M |
| NO | 2 companies | €150M - €700M |
| DK | 2 companies | €100M - €400M |
| EE | 3 companies | €50M - €200M |
Sectors:
- Autonomous systems (drones, USVs, UGVs)
- Sensors (EO/IR/Radar/Hyperspectral)
- AI-edge (targeting, ISR, swarm)
- Advanced materials (batteries, composites)
- Manufacturing tech (additive, modular)
Phase 2: Outreach (2025-2026)
Roadshow: Amsterdam HQ pitch deck:
- Innovation Box (9% → 5% for defense IP)
- Euronext IPO pathway (€1B+ valuations)
- JEF central location (2h to all capitals)
- Capacity credits (government revenue backing)
Target conversion: 5 HQ relocations by end 2026.
Phase 3: IPO Pipeline (2026-2027)
First wave IPO's:
- 2026 Q2: Sensor unicorn (€1.5B valuation)
- 2026 Q4: AI-edge unicorn (€2B valuation)
- 2027 Q2: Materials unicorn (€800M valuation)
Total market cap: €4B+ in defense unicorns on Euronext.
KPI's voor Zuidas Defense Hub
Defense Unicorn HQ's in NL: 5 by 2027 Euronext IPO's: 3 by 2027 Total Market Cap: €4B+ DeepTech Defence Fund: €500M raised R&D Jobs Created: 2000+Competitive Positioning vs. Other Hubs
| Factor | Amsterdam | London | Stockholm | Paris |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Access | Euronext, liquid | LSE, maar Brexit | Small market | CAC40, protectionist |
| Tax (Innovation Box) | 9% (5% proposed) | 19% | 20.6% | 25% |
| Talent Pool | EU-wide mobility | Post-Brexit limits | Nordics only | Language barrier |
| JEF Central | ✅ 2h flights | ✅ But Brexit | ❌ Peripheral | ❌ Protectionist |
| Unicorn Track Record | ASML, Adyen | Many, but Brexit | Spotify (not defense) | Limited tech |
| Strategic Autonomy | ✅ EU-aligned | ⚠️ ITAR influence | ✅ EU-aligned | ⚠️ French-first |
Result: Amsterdam is optimal voor defense unicorns die EU-wide willen schalen zonder vendor lock-in.
Risks & Mitigations
Risk 1: ITAR Influence
Risk: US investors push ITAR compliance → vendor lock-in.
Mitigation:
- Euronext focus (EU capital, not US)
- Cap US ownership at 25% (maintain EU control)
- Innovation Box incentive (EU IP ownership)
Risk 2: Talent Competition
Risk: Competing met big tech (Google, Meta) voor AI talent.
Mitigation:
- 30% ruling (tax advantage vs. big tech)
- Mission-driven (strategic autonomy narrative)
- Equity upside (unicorn IPO potential)
Risk 3: Relocation Complexity
Risk: Companies reluctant to move HQ (existing roots).
Mitigation:
- Keep R&D in home country (retain talent)
- Dual HQ model (legal in NL, operations distributed)
- Fast-track support (visa, office, schools for expats)
Summary: Zuidas as DeepTech Defence Capital
Vision: Amsterdam Zuidas = #1 European hub voor defense unicorns met strategic autonomy + surge capacity.
Strategy:
- Attract 5 unicorn HQ's by 2027 (tax incentives, capital access)
- €500M DeepTech Defence Fund (anchor investments)
- Euronext IPO pipeline (3 defense unicorns, €4B+ market cap)
- Innovation Box 5% voor strategic autonomy IP
Why it works:
- ✅ Proven unicorn track record (ASML, Adyen)
- ✅ Best tax regime in EU (Innovation Box)
- ✅ JEF central location (2h to all capitals)
- ✅ No vendor lock-in (EU regulatory alignment)
- ✅ Deep capital markets (Euronext)
Result: Nederland wordt leading defense tech hub in Europa, met economic security + strategic autonomy alignment.